Here's what I think:
- Rather than being the event that contradicts all possibilities and therefore a non-historical incident, the resurrection is "the event," kinda like the guy who crushes a beer can on his head is "the man." It contradicts all known possibilities, but not all possibilities. If any event is historical, it is the resurrection, because by it God speaks to his creation.
- The resurrection, in the creation we know, the fallen one, is the only possible event. In other words, no other event could have happened, not because I believe in determinism, but because YHWH is God.
- So the resurrection, as historical is provable in the probabilistic sense, but it also provable in the sense of a final telos or eschaton of the creation, one day it well be proved. Also, the resurrection is provable in some sense by the life of the church insofar as the church actually fulfills its vocation to make disciples.